The Money Supply Vs. Inflation historical chart below can save your family if you follow its revelation.
The “M2 Money Supply”, also referred to as “M2 Money Stock“, is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation.
M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as “less liquid money”, such as saving bank accounts.
The chart below plots the yearly M2 Growth Rate and the Inflation Rate, which is defined as the yearly change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
When inflation is high, prices for goods and services rise, and thus the purchasing power per unit of currency decreases.
Historically, M2 has grown along with the economy (see in the chart below). However, it has also grown along with Federal Debt to GDP in times of war.
In most recent history, M2 growth surpassed 10 percent in recessions, during which an expansionary monetary policy was deployed by the central bank, including large scale asset purchases. According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked.
The chart below is that of the M2 Money Supply Vs. Inflation:
The chart above is telling you what is coming very soon.
Inflation is tied to the money supply and every single period of time that the money supply expanded, inflation soon followed with a market crash.
Now, when you look at the current money supply, on the far right, you can clearly see that it has exploded beyond reason just within the last few years. This is leading to a MASSIVE MARKET CRASH followed by RAPID INFLATION.
However, you have time still to prepare. As of today, inflation has not yet started but it will come soon.
Do you know which assets you should own, hedge, or sell immediately?
As the Money Supply Vs. inflation adjustment appears we will tell our members precisely what assets to buy, keep, and sell within the Members Blog.
Market Cap to GDP Ratio is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks. It has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett.
Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”
The Wilshire 5000 Index is widely accepted as the definitive benchmark for the U.S. equity market and is intended to measure the total market capitalization of most publicly traded companies headquartered in the United States.
The chart below is that of the Wilshire 5000:
The S&P 500 to GDP Ratio
For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio is shown below as well. The S&P 500 consists of 500 large US companies. Just like the Market Cap to GDP Ratio and is a capitalization-weighted index.
It captures approximately 80% of the available total market capitalization. For these reasons, it’s a much better measure for ‘market cap’ than the Dow Jones – however, the two charts look very similar.
The charts clearly illustrate that the total US Markets are well above their 2000, 2008 and although we have a bit to go, we are quickly reaching the 1929 bubble. Thus, it is safe to assume we are in Market Cap to GDP bubble territory.
Over the next few weeks, we will show you a few more charts that are a bit concerning. Our Wealth Preserver members are protected just in case the Unthinkable occurs.
The S&P 500 is the most widely cited single gauge of large-cap equities on U.S. stock exchanges. Standard & Poor’s estimates that more than $7.8 trillion is benchmarked to the index, making it one of the most influential figures in the world of finance. To be included, a company must be publicly traded in the United States and report a market capitalization of $5.3 billion or greater.
The dividend yield indicates how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. In other words, it measures how much “bang for your buck” you are getting from dividends.
In the absence of any capital gains, the dividend yield is effectively the return on investment for a stock. The lower the dividend yield, the less you get for your investment, and hence the more overvalued a stock.
The historic S&P 500 Dividend Yields were deducted by Robert Shiller and published in his book Irrational Exuberance.
As you can clearly see in the chart, The S&P 500 Dividend Yield Is Screaming and telling you that it is well into bubble territory and will eventually correct. When it does correct or crash, will you be prepared or warned, or will you just go down with the markets?
The S&P500 P/E Ratio shows whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued. It’s not a matter which Stocks you own in your portfolio because when the P/E Ratio turns EXTREME, VIRTUALLY ALL STOCKS Crash.
The price-earnings ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s stock price by its earnings per share. In other words, the S&P500 P/E ratio shows what the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its current earnings.
Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced this adjusted ratio to a wider audience of investors. The P/E Ratio is illustrated below and is extremely simple to understand with a quick view of the chart.
So, is it under or overvalued?
Today the P/E Ratio is sitting at 28 and is in Extreme Bubble Territory and getting higher!
All you have to understand from the chart is that since 1880,
“Every single time the S&P500 P/E Ratio rose above 20, the stock market crashed; Every Single Time!”
Expanding Socialist Authoritarianism is getting far worse by the day and it appears that our Algorithmic Cyclical Models on War & Civil Unrest are simply on target, have started, and are expanding rapidly.
India is becoming confrontational against China and oppressing its own people which appears to be in a secret agenda with the Globalist Socialism Crowd trying to isolate China and force them to surrender their sovereignty to their new world order.
What is really frightening is that the Democrats are taking on the policies advocated by Nazi-style views of Elizabeth Warren. It is one thing to read in history books about how oppressive governments became which led to World War II and to see it unfolding before our eyes.
The Socialists have created such a divide among the people this is doing monumental damage to the population turning brother against brother. In California, a woman threw a hot cup of coffee in the face of a man on the street who was not wearing a mask. This entire issue of masks and social distancing has created a mindset that being even close to anyone is dangerous. Many no longer shake hands.
The Presidential Stock Market Direction will be determined by who enters the White House. The “WHY & HOW” is clear…
The recent MMT implies that a Presidential Stock Market Direction win by Biden will prove to be a complete joke. This would be much WORSE than Jimmy Carter who inspired the collapse of confidence in the dollar and government leading to the 1980 gold high. Capital will flee public assets and shift into private.
One the other hand, the worse of the economic crisis is external to the USA became many countries like Germany depend on selling to consumers outside their own country. The likelihood of a breakup of the EU and their idea of canceling currency and moving to perpetual bonds that would even wipe out pensions in Europe will push capital outside and into the US stock market.
Keep in mind that this is a Monetary Crisis Cycle intermixed with a Sovereign Debt Crisis and this entire coronavirus nonsense has so accelerated the debt crisis that now the politicians fear what will happen if they lift the restrictions on paying rents and mortgages.
The politicians around the world have responded in such an exaggerated manner to this virus that they will NEVER admit a mistake. Thus, they must oppress the people and hence we have entered into rising authoritarianism for the next decade.
Although the US Market will have a Slingshot move will occur no matter the Presidential Stock Market Direction, US retirement shares market will follow Europe, so be prepared. Stay close to your Wealth Preserver and Maximizer Signals to prevent a potential retirement account wipeout as this election will become the most violent in our countries history, and it will continue to escalate through 2032.
Lockdown Tsunami #2 has just begun, and that is really bad news for the U.S. economy.
Lockdown Tsunami #1 resulted in the permanent closing of more than 100,000 U.S. businesses, colossal lines at food banks around the nation, and the loss of tens of millions of jobs. Needless to say, this new wave of lock-downs will make things even worse, and some are speculating that this is precisely what Democrats want.
If the U.S. economy continues to fall apart as we approach the election in November, the thinking is that this will make President Trump look bad and will make it more likely that people will cast votes for Democrats. But there is also the possibility that this could backfire in a huge way for the left. If millions of Americans start to identify the Democrats as “the party of the lock-downs”, that could actually greatly help President Trump in November.
At this point, the battle lines are becoming quite clear. President Trump and other top Republicans are strongly against more lockdowns, but Democratic politicians in many areas of the country are starting to institute them anyway. In fact, we just learned that all schools in Los Angeles, San Diego, Atlanta and Nashville will be closed at the beginning of the new school year…
“Resisting pressure from President Donald Trump, three of the nation’s largest school districts said Monday that they will begin the new school year with all students learning from home. Schools in Los Angeles, San Diego and Atlanta will begin entirely online, officials said Monday. Schools in Nashville plan to do the same, at least through Labor Day.”
Other major cities are expected to follow suit. Of course considering the quality of the education in most of our public schools, most of those kids won’t exactly be missing too much.
Ultimately, closing the schools won’t have too much of an economic impact, but shutting down most of the businesses in our largest state certainly will. On Monday, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a comprehensive lock-down for 30 California counties which account for “about 80 percent of California’s population”…
“Newsom, a Democrat, announced during a press briefing that all bars across the state must close up shop and that restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and card rooms must suspend indoor activities.The governor also announced that all gyms, places of worship, malls, personal care services, barbershops, salons, and non-critical offices in counties on the state’s “monitoring list” had to shut down under the new order. The order affects more than 30 counties which are home to about 80 percent of California’s population.”
Newsom is a political opportunist, and I guarantee you that he wouldn’t be doing this unless he truly believed that it would help Democrats in November.
But I think that Newsom and other top Democrats have greatly underestimated how much the American people detest COVID-19 restrictions at this point. We have been witnessing a huge backlash all over the country, and even though California is far more liberal than most other states, a backlash has been brewing there as well.
If the Democrats are not very careful, they are going to lose an election that they could have very easily won.
First of all, they should have never nominated Joe Biden. It is obvious to everyone that he is physically and mentally declining at a very rapid pace, and videos of him “acting creepy” will be viewed millions upon millions of times over the coming months. Democrats have known about Biden’s creepy behavior for many years, but they decided to give the nomination to him anyway.
Secondly, most top Democrats have refused to strongly denounce the rioting, looting and violence that have happened around the nation, and this is going to push a whole lot of people toward the Republicans.
Thirdly, the backlash against these new lockdowns is going to be directed primarily toward Democrats. If Democratic politicians push too far, this will be an issue that deeply hurts them in November.
But despite all of these mistakes, it is possible that the Democrats could still come out on top, because Trump and the Republicans are making lots of political mistakes as well.
If Trump wants to make a comeback in the polls, he really needs to fully embrace an anti-lock-down message, because that would strongly resonate with tens of millions of voters.
The first wave of lockdowns certainly didn’t stop the spread of the virus, and more lockdowns will not stop it from spreading either. And now three separate scientific studies have shown that COVID-19 antibodies disappear very, very rapidly, and that means that a vaccine is not going to end this crisis and we will never reach a point of “herd immunity”. So we are going to have to find a way to function effectively as this virus circulates around the globe year after year, because it isn’t going to go away.
We simply cannot shut down the economy every time the number of cases starts to surge again. The damage that we have already done to the U.S. economy has been incalculable, and now these new lockdowns will do even more damage.
“Let me be blunt, too many countries are headed in the wrong direction, the virus remains public enemy number one,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual briefing from the U.N. agency’s headquarters in Geneva. “If basics are not followed, the only way this pandemic is going to go – it is going to get worse and worse and worse.”
What would the WHO have us do?
Would they like us to all lock ourselves in our homes indefinitely?
The WHO keeps touting a future vaccine, but if COVID-19 antibodies disappear after just a few months, there is no way that a vaccine is going to end this pandemic.
And many Americans will never, ever take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances.
As I discussed in an article that I posted earlier, it looks like we are just going to have to accept the fact that COVID-19 is going to be around year after year.
It is easy for the “experts” to tell us that everyone should just stay home, but the price tag for the first wave of lockdowns was astronomical. Thanks to all of the emergency measures that Congress passed, the U.S. government ran a budget deficit of 864 billion dollars in the month of June…
The US budget deficit surged to a record-breaking $864 billion in June, the Treasury Department said on Monday. The increase is the product of the federal government’s efforts to combat the corona-virus pandemic and its economic fallout. The government collected about $240 billion in tax revenue in June, the Treasury said, and federal spending overall reached $1.1 trillion.
To put that in perspective, it took from the founding of our nation until 1980 for the U.S. government to accumulate a total of 864 billion dollars of debt.
And now we have added that much to the national debt in just one month.
We simply cannot keep doing this.
No matter what we do, COVID-19 is going to keep spreading, and we are going to have to learn how to deal with this virus for a very long time to come.
Lockdown Tsunami #2 is definitely not the answer, but unfortunately many of our politicians are convinced otherwise. So U.S. economic conditions will continue to deteriorate, and the economic depression that began earlier this year will continue through the end of 2020 and beyond. We encourage wealth and retirement account protection immediately because when the economy turns down, your retirement account will get wiped out but you family can be safe from collapse.
A possible change in near-term trend is likely as we approach this month in S&P 500 established back during March. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. Technical resistance stands at 3393.76 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is going to unfold. Our technical support lies at 2271.03 which is still holding at this time. which is still holding at this time,” stated Livio S Nespoli of InterAnalyst.us.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 3393.52 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during February. Nonetheless, this market is trading below that high by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 2532.68 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn a further significant decline ahead becomes possible.
The market has consolidated for the past 2 Months and only 3393.54 would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 219186 made during March only a break of 244749 on a Monthly closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility and how the V became a W.
“For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds, the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, but the more likely scenario is rolling Ws with a sideways to downward bias.” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds. As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks, and tt will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
With the Rails index back to all-time highs this seems like an especially appropriate question considering the fundamental data which is…. well, see for yourselves.
Consider where rail stocks are trading:
Do fundamentals justify this price? Here is the chart of total carload and intermodal traffic for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Total U.S. carload traffic for the first five months of 2020 was 4,713,757 carloads, down 14.7 percent, or 815,413 carloads, from the same period last year; and 5,186,630 intermodal units, down 11.3 percent, or 661,703 containers and trailers, from last year.
And another way to see the unprecedented divergence tells us Where The Stock Market Goes Now:
U.S. railroads originated 740,171 carloads in May 2020, down 27.7 percent, or 282,965 carloads, from May 2019. U.S. railroads also originated 912,922 containers and trailers in May 2020, down 13 percent, or 136,241 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in May 2020 were 1,653,093, down 20.2 percent, or 419,206 carloads and intermodal units from May 2019.
In May 2020, one of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with May 2019. It was farm products excl. grain, up 324 carloads or 10.6 percent.
Meanwhile, commodities that saw declines in May 2020 from May 2019 were coal, down a record 127,201 carloads or 40.7%; Coal carloads are down 26.1% so far this year and have declined on an annual basis for 13 straight months.
In short, lowest rail traffic in years, and that was based on a trend even before the coronavirus, and yet rails stocks are at all time high.
Here is why:
As BMO rates strategist Ian Lyngen writes in “Jay’s Market, Just Trading in it“, a core theme of trading has been “the remarkable resilience of the equity market despite a shuttered economy, historic job losses and civil unrest across the US.”
So to get to the bottom of the question on every trader’s mind – just who is behind this rally – BMO sent out a poll to its clients where the first question showed a clear consensus for the driver behind the move; “73% offered the Fed as the inspiration behind the S&P 500’s impressive rally”, vastly more than those who cited labor market recovery/reopening optimism (6%) greater fiscal stimulus (5%), and progress on Covid-19 treatment (6%). And now that Powell owns this rally, he better not allow to reverse.
1. What is driving the swift recovery of equities?
a) Fed – 73% b) Earnings Optimism – 0% c) Labor market recovery – 6% d) Further fiscal stimulus – 5% e) Progress in treating/preventing Covid-19 – 6% f) Other (please specify) – Reopening Optimism/ All of the Above/ Underinvestment
Less relevant to the market’s ramp but just as interesting in terms of what markets expect for the Fed to unveil next in the central bank’s creeping nationalization of capital markets, were responses to BMO’s second special question – when, or even if the FOMC will roll out yield curve control – which were not nearly as clear cut with a wide variety of opinions. 3-6 months was the most common answer with 33%, which points to the September, November, or December meeting as the most probable venue for the introduction of the new policy tool. Within ‘3 months’ or ‘not this cycle’ both took a roughly equal share as the second most frequent reply, so as Lyngen notes, “clearly investors are split on whether YCC needs to be deployed rapidly, or not at all given the state of the economy and recovery. 6-9 months and 9+ months both rounded out the replies with 14% and 12%, respectively.”
2. When will the Fed announce yield curve control?
a) Within 3 months – 21% b) 3-6 months – 33% c) 6-9 months – 14% d) 9+ months – 12% e) Not this cycle – 20%
Finally, an interesting snapshot on how investors respond to data is BMO’s question how respondents will react to tomorrow’s jobs report: In the event of a disappointment and a Treasury market rally, the clearest takeaway was a reluctance to take profits – only 25% would sell versus a 37% average and the lowest read since October 2019. Meanwhile 11% would join the rally and buy and 64% would do nothing compared to respective averages of 7% and 56%.
The other meaningful takeaway was a positive skew on the belly of the curve as 36% thought the next 15 bp in 5-year yields will be higher; well below the 45% average and matching last month’s figure as the lowest since November 2019.
The velocity of money is like blood pressure. If it is too high or too low, it can be the Velocity Of Financial Collapse. Too high indicates inflationary pressures are building and/or the presence of speculative bubbles. If too low, deflationary pressures are growing, presaging a dangerous collapse. (eLearning)
The velocity of money reached its high during the 1990s dot.com bubble. After it collapsed in 2000, low-interest rates (2002-2007) fueled another bubble, the US property bubble, and when it collapsed in 2008, the velocity of money again plunged and never recovered.
Despite trillions spent by central banks after 2009, the velocity of money has continued to fall. Today, in 2020, the velocity of money reached an all-time low. In Q1, the average velocity was only 1.37. Q2 will be even lower.
To offset the historic plunge in demand caused by COVID-19, central banks resorted to money printing on an unprecedented scale. While the money printing will stave off starvation for the vast majority at the bottom of the economic food chain and ensure profits for the few still at the top; today’s money printing will turn fiat money into little more than food stamps and give the economic elites little incentive to do otherwise.
Despite central banks’ excessive money printing, hyperinflation may not occur, at least not immediately. In capitalist economies, because currencies are circulating coupons of credit and debt, when credit disappears, so, too, does “money”; and, today, money is disappearing into deflation’s waiting paw even faster than the Fed can print it.
The mandate of the Fed in 1913 was to create a system of debt-based fiat money that insured bankers profited, i.e. “made bank”, off all societal productivity, a never-before-seen form of economic parasitism.
Since that time, the Fed has done admirably with that mandate, given the problems they’ve had to deal with, e.g. a dangerously low gold/fiat ratio in the 1920s, the 1929 stock market crash, the 1930s collapse of world trade, the loss of gold reserves due to US overseas military spending, the serial collapse of bubbles beginning in 2000 triggering “the great recession of 2008, the amuse-bouche to what is now about to happen,
AMERICA THE FROG
The frog is frozen still
In water now so hot
The water’s almost boiling
But the frog knows it not
Quickly it must jump
To avoid a boiling death
The Fates themselves are watching
With collective bated breath
Will America survive?
Or will it now succumb
Its heritage abandoned
Its future now undone
By its own hand it’s threatened
Itself its great threat
The frog continues sitting still
In denial ignorant yet
The water’s getting hotter
The heat’s turned up to high
And it’s an even money bet
That the frog is gonna die
It is June 2020. The water’s boiling. The frog’s still in the pot. The velocity of financil collapse it closer than we might imagine.
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