Here is a quick TopDown review of the EUR/USD charts.
The monthly level of a market is where the long-term trend is defined. Let’s start by looking at a monthly chart first to find the market’s actual long term direction.
Obviously, as you can see in the chart, the direction of this trend has been moving down for 5 months. The last high on the monthly level was 12555, which occurred in February. The previous monthly level low was 115.09, which formed during June, and only a break of 115.09 on a closing basis would warn of a technical “near-term” change in trend.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 12th at 125.55, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 6th. We have been generally trading down for the past 18 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly model casting a bearish future.
Our Daily level momentum and trend chart below illustrates a very bearish posture forming at 117 since late May as it continues to pull back in consolidation for the next leg.
Based on reviewing the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts, any bullish positioning is absolutely against the trend and will prove to be virtually futile. In fact, the historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have since been in a bearish trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 64% decline and in line with the political failure of the EU. This market is technically in meltdown and a potential complete currency collapse.
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Each European country may fall back to their old currency leaving the Euro a ghost of its former self.
*** Do not trade solely based on this post as it may not represent current market conditions. Markets can change abruptly. ***