InterAnalyst

Jed Clampett’s Oil Trade Signals

by Livio Nespoli | Apr 23, 2020 | Bull & Bear Blog

Jed Clampett’s Oil Trade Signals are unmatched because they make logical common sense.

J.D. “Jed” Clampett, usually called Jed Clampett, is the patriarch of the family with his mother-in-law Granny, nephew Jethro, and daughter Elly May.

Although Jed had received little formal education, Jed Clampett has a good deal of common sense.

So, lets take a look and what is occurring in the markets that started with the Corona-Crash, and see if have Jed’s common sense to make tycoon size profits in OIL… even if you’re not an oil type of investor! It is just common sense!

Just 2 days ago, Oil futures “May 2020” contract reached about a minus -$35 dollars per barrel. Understand that this is a DOMESTIC market and it does not reflect the world price of oil. But all oil is falling.

InterAnalyst Members, who trade oil and sold or shorted when the signals came out on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts below are smiling, but not as much as they will be when the signals turn bullish!

(Please click on the charts to maximize)

The contractual terms of the WTI Crude Oil contracts traded on the CME NYMEX market are based upon the domestic pipeline delivered crude oil contract.

This is not the crude in tankers. Because of the sudden drop in domestic demand thanks to the lockdown, there is no demand for Gasoline and even Jet Fuel has declined in demand.

This resulted in the filling of the majority of storage facilities inside the United States for the supply was coming in by pipeline rather than trucks or tankers. This is why the domestic crude oil market collapsed ahead of expiration. The GLUT is reflected in the United States and this is impacting domestic production that will lead to the drop which in turn will swing back and eventually materialize in higher prices and production then declines and jobs are lost.

This situation does NOT reflect the scope of the international market in Asia or Europe. BRENT Crude oil is the international benchmark reference index price for the majority of global oil markets. BRENT Crude prices are holding above $25 dollars per barrel for immediate physical delivery.

So, Jed…

Looking at the price chart of DBO, the ETF we track for OIL traders, once the economic news settles down, and it will, do you think OIL will go back to a normal price? It is 95% off its highs!

Are you kidding? Jed already bought by the time you read “Are you kidding?”.

Let me ask you a second question. Once the Corona-virus settles down, and it will, do you think people around the world will need oil again? How about when a Corona-vaccine is developed and all economies explode? That day could make you 100 – 500% alone.

We have Jed’s common sense, do you? Best of all, we will track it all for you in the members blog.

Once the economic news settles, we will provide our members a signal that will explode their profits. And as it goes up and down along the way, which it certainly will, why not capture gains and the avoid declines the whole?

This will be a bullish move of historic proportions and can set you up for historic profits… the kind you’ll read about in the history books.

Jed Clampett knows this one is a “No Brainer”.

And because it is obvious, if you become a member today, we are offering you a 25% Lifetime Discount. Use the Promo-Code “Wealth25” when you sign up for your 15-day free trial.

Marxism, Buffett, Dalio, Stalin & The Bottom

by Livio Nespoli | Mar 23, 2020 | Bull & Bear Blog

As always, the Democrats just can’t stand the fact that Trump might take credit for helping people and have blocked and relief package. Democrats claimed in true Marxist fashion in the Senate that the GOP’s push to set aside $425 billion for loans to help select companies and industries, dubbing it a “slush fund” for the Treasury to direct as it sees fit. They said the bill is tilted toward corporations instead of working people. What they fail to even address is that those working people rely upon small businesses the Democrats hate so much which provides 70% of their employment.

Small businesses have been ordered to close down. They cannot pay employees and nobody has suspended their rents. The destruction of small businesses will be devastating to the economy and this is all about playing politics. I am saddened.

The closing for March, if down from last Friday may spark more serious liquidation as Hedge Funds dump everything and some may more to suspend withdrawals as is taking place in European bond funds. The Solus Alternative Asset Management LP, Hedge Fund, known for its investment in retail chain Toys “R” Us, informed its investors that it is shutting its flagship fund and will restrict redemption’s as it works to sell off holdings.

Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may have lost more than $70 billion on its 10 biggest investments. This type of decline shows that the buy-and-hold strategy fails in a serious market correction. Ray Dalio, who will go down in history for his proclamation that “cash is trash” on January 21, 2020, has lost probably more than $4 trillion in Bridgewater.

Where the 2007-2009 Crash took out Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, this time we will see Hedge Funds go down in flames. This undermines liquidity and makes the market vulnerable because market-makers pull back just to survive.

We are headed into a Global Recession which could become even worse than the Great Depression. Here’s why?

This time we have politicians taking advice from the medical industry. The medical people who do not understand that you cannot shut down the economy on this grand scale because of the devastation is insurmountable to people, their jobs, and wiping out their pensions. This economic shut down on such a massive scale is far worse than if the Corona death toll was even 8%.

Never before has the economy been crashing with such speed for this is orchestrated by people who only look at how diseases spread and not how the economy contracts.

Yes, it is true that if we all stayed home we can even beat the common cold. But the post-coronavirus world is going to be far more damaging to the future than any of these people understand.

To have the Democrats playing politics in the middle of the is just insane.

Liquidity is collapsing everywhere. Bank failures rose after the 1929 crash because liquidity failure with a declining velocity = less money with even less money moving around the economy = recession and potential depression.

A monthly closing on Oil below $20.50 will warn of the economic recession ahead as people stay home and this command of quarantine and social distancing may undermine the very cooperation which is the foundation of civilization.

If people are afraid to interact and suspect everyone, that is precisely the atmosphere created by Stalin during the Communist era. We are voluntarily limiting and quickly losing all rights including the freedom of assembly. Even Twitter has shut down those who dissent against the coronavirus and this is calling into question our freedom of speech as well.

InterAnalyst will help guide everyone out of this time of insecurity and political misdirection via selfish ignorance.

Look at the chart below:

Finding The Bottom

As the markets find the bottom, it will be laced with volatility and insecurity with the media frightening you to the point of insecurity. this is not done for YOU as an InterAnalyst member. It is done for those Buy and Holders who never exited at the top and now have been scared into submission.

However, as an InterAnalyst member, you recognize that it likely will become the best entry point of your life! Yes, insecurity will be there but you know the stock market is going nowhere!

The stock market never lies and it always returns when there is “blood in the street” and the bottom arrives.

Thus, follow the guideline to a risky to safe entry back into the coming slingshot move.

Step One: Wealth Maximizer Pro (Daily Charts)

When the Daily chart delivers a green signal, jump for joy, then choose to enter a position or wait to see if the daily signal is holding for a few days for stability. If we are at or close to a bottom, volatility will be very high so prepare for it if you choose to trade it.

Step Two: Wealth Maximizer (Weekly Charts)

When the Daily is followed by a Weekly green signal you know that the economy is attempting to settle and gain strength.

You should begin to feel a bit more secure. Entering a bullish position here is a bit less risky because the weekly signal has some economic strength attached rather than pure daily volatility. You can even wait another week to see if it develops more strength.

Step Three: The Wealth Preserver (Monthly Charts)

Once the Green signal has elevated from the Daily to the Weekly and the Weekly has moved into a second or third week of a bullish trend, you may select to beat the green monthly Wealth Preserver signal by entering a bullish position before month end.

If you look at The Wealth Preserver chart above, ask yourself whether you remember the days or weeks Just prior to the bottom green signals in 2003 and 2008? NOPE, right. You don’t remember them, but what you would have remembered is getting in after preserving your money at the prior top, before the full devastating decline those bear markets delivered.

The same is true now.

So, the bottom is going to come. You must be patient, it will arrive, it always does!

Enter in when you feel most comfortable, but recognize that the Wealth Preserver has proven to be deadly accurate at economic turning points.

The phrase to be true: “Better Safe, than Sorry!”

Obviously, entry at any point has its risks, but as you look closely at The Wealth Preserver chart above, making a move using the monthly charts is rarely a poor decision…ESPECIALLY OFF THE BOTTOM.

This time it is coming with a slingshot.

Where Are Oil Prices Heading?

by Livio Nespoli | Jul 16, 2018 | Bull & Bear Blog

Oil ended the past week down 4.4%, despite a brave rally on Friday that resulted in oil closing the week at just over $71 per barrel. Wednesday marked the brunt of the downward price action, with oil prices closing nearly 5% lower for the day after Libya indicated that it would resume export activities at its Eastern ports, helping allay fears over tight global supplies.

Working against the downward price pressure was news that U.S. stocks of crude oil declined by 12.633 million barrels in the week ended July 6, 2018, following a 1.245 million rise in the previous week. It is the most significant drop in crude inventories since the week ended Sept. 2, 2016. The sharp decline in the level of inventories came as a shock to oil traders and analysts who had forecast a drop of 4.489 million barrels.

Despite the appearance of strong oil demand from the larger-than-expected inventory draw, concerns about a growing trade dispute between China and the U.S. related to a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods plus an end to oil supply disruptions in Libya took precedence in the market and pushed oil lower for the week.

Near-term price momentum also seems to be working against oil, with the Fast line of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator crossing below the slow line on the daily price chart. The cross is an early indication that the previous upward price momentum is slowing. The signal is typically confirmed when the fast line crosses the zero line on the MACD chart, indicating that momentum has shifted to the downside. For the time being, oil found some support at the 55-day exponential moving average of $69.06 per barrel and ended the week above the psychological price level of $70.

Are Commodities Oversold And A Buy Right Now?

by Livio Nespoli | Jul 10, 2018 | Bull & Bear Blog

Commodity prices and related commodity ETFs have fallen off in recent weeks on concerns over demand weakness in emerging markets, the ongoing trade war and potential oil production increases. However, the selling may have been overdone.

Over the past month, the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) fell 1.9%, iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP) dropped 5.0% and United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI) declined 3.3%.

Goldman Sachs argued that concerns over oil and other commodities have been “oversold,” and even those most exposed to the risks of a U.S.-China trade war are now worth a second look.

Most of the selling may be attributed to the potential fallout from an escalating trade war between Washington D.C. and Beijing. The White House is set to implement a 25% tariff on $34 billion in Chinese goods while China said it would retaliate on the same value in U.S. goods.

Commodities Not Set to Be Largely Hit

However, Goldman argued that commodities were not set to be largely hit.

“Only markets that cannot be rerouted globally to other consumers will be impacted by the proposed July 6th tariffs … We believe that the trade war impact on commodity markets will be very small, with exception of soybeans where complete rerouting of supplies is not possible,” according to a Goldman note.

Goldman also singled out soybean contracts, which have “value at current levels.”

The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) jumped 4.2% Friday, with CBOT corn futures up 2.4% to $3.6075 per bushel, according to Bloomberg. Nevertheless, SOYB is still down about 11% since June.

“We believe all of these concerns have been oversold. Even soybeans, the most exposed of all assets to trade wars, is now a buy,” Goldman analysts said.

The bank is broadly bullish on commodities as its outlook is bolstered by strong global growth and depleting inventories in energy and metal markets that would likely result in higher prices. Goldman Sachs maintained its “Overweight” assessment of the commodities space, projecting a 12-month expected return of 10% for the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.

Goldman also singled out soybean contracts, which have “value at current levels.”

If you see a red arrow turn green in the commodities area of your InterAnalyst subscription, it may be profitable to move on it right now.