Home Building and Real Estate Slowing Down 2018

Home Building and Real Estate Slowing Down 2018

In July I posted an article pointing to the fact that Real Estate Sales were declining rapidly in Southern California.

Sadly, that has spread across the entire country.  According to Redfin, more than one out of every four homes for sale in America had a price drop within the most recent four week period

In the four weeks ended Sept. 16, more than one-quarter of the homes listed for sale had a price drop, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That is the highest level since the company began tracking the metric in 2010. Redfin defines a price drop as a reduction in the list price of more than 1 percent and less than 50 percent.

That is absolutely nuts and we have not seen this in a long time.

Yes, this could be just a short-term event, but according to Bloomberg is may be more serious . . .

“Although the U.S. economy and job market are firing on nearly all cylinders, the housing market has essentially stalled,” the mortgage guarantor said. “Weaker affordability, homebuilder constraints and ongoing supply and demand imbalances over the summer resulted in fewer home sales and less home construction compared to earlier this year.”

August sales of existing homes missed analysts’ projections, while new-home sales fell in three of the four months through July. Figures due Wednesday on new-home sales are projected to show stabilization in August after the weakest pace in nine months. Housing and other economic data may be clouded in coming months by fallout from Hurricane Florence.

“Coming out of the downturn we’d expected a much stronger acceleration but we haven’t really seen that” during the recovery from the housing collapse, said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

So, as the chart illustrates housing starts have not fully recovered from the 2008 meltdown.

Although the stock market is still flying due to international capital flows moving into US markets, it makes sense to avoid sectors that may not be moving higher and may rolling over preparing for a decline.

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