Money Supply Vs. Inflation

Money Supply Vs. Inflation

The Money Supply Vs. Inflation historical chart below can save your family if you follow its revelation.

The “M2 Money Supply”, also referred to as “M2 Money Stock“, is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation.

M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as “less liquid money”, such as saving bank accounts.

The chart below plots the yearly M2 Growth Rate and the Inflation Rate, which is defined as the yearly change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

When inflation is high, prices for goods and services rise, and thus the purchasing power per unit of currency decreases.

Historically, M2 has grown along with the economy (see in the chart below). However, it has also grown along with Federal Debt to GDP in times of war.

In most recent history, M2 growth surpassed 10 percent in recessions, during which an expansionary monetary policy was deployed by the central bank, including large scale asset purchases. According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked.

The chart below is that of the M2 Money Supply Vs. Inflation:

Market Cap -GGP Ratio

The chart above is telling you what is coming very soon.

Inflation is tied to the money supply and every single period of time that the money supply expanded,  inflation soon followed with a market crash.

Now, when you look at the current money supply, on the far right, you can clearly see that it has exploded beyond reason just within the last few years. This is leading to a MASSIVE MARKET CRASH followed by RAPID INFLATION.

However, you have time still to prepare. As of today, inflation has not yet started but it will come soon.

Do you know which assets you should own, hedge, or sell immediately?

As the Money Supply Vs. inflation adjustment appears we will tell our members precisely what assets to buy, keep, and sell within the Members Blog.

 

 

Market Cap to GDP Ratio

Market Cap to GDP Ratio

Market Cap to GDP Ratio is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks. It has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett.

Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

The Wilshire 5000 Index is widely accepted as the definitive benchmark for the U.S. equity market and is intended to measure the total market capitalization of most publicly traded companies headquartered in the United States.

The chart below is that of the Wilshire 5000:

Market Cap -GGP Ratio

The S&P 500 to GDP Ratio

For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio is shown below as well. The S&P 500 consists of 500 large US companies. Just like the Market Cap to GDP Ratio and is a capitalization-weighted index.

It captures approximately 80% of the available total market capitalization. For these reasons, it’s a much better measure for ‘market cap’ than the Dow Jones – however, the two charts look very similar.

 

 

S&P500=GDP Bubble

The charts clearly illustrate that the total US Markets are well above their 2000, 2008 and although we have a bit to go, we are quickly reaching the 1929 bubble. Thus, it is safe to assume we are in Market Cap to GDP bubble territory.

Over the next few weeks, we will show you a few more charts that are a bit concerning. Our Wealth Preserver members are protected just in case the Unthinkable occurs.

 

 

The S&P 500 Dividend Yield Is Screaming

The S&P 500 Dividend Yield Is Screaming

The S&P 500 is the most widely cited single gauge of large-cap equities on U.S. stock exchanges. Standard & Poor’s estimates that more than $7.8 trillion is benchmarked to the index, making it one of the most influential figures in the world of finance. To be included, a company must be publicly traded in the United States and report a market capitalization of $5.3 billion or greater.

According to Mike Maloney, the S&P 500 Dividend Yield is the second-best way to measure a market value (after the Price Earnings Ratio).

The dividend yield indicates how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. In other words, it measures how much “bang for your buck” you are getting from dividends.

In the absence of any capital gains, the dividend yield is effectively the return on investment for a stock. The lower the dividend yield, the less you get for your investment, and hence the more overvalued a stock.

The historic S&P 500 Dividend Yields were deducted by Robert Shiller and published in his book Irrational Exuberance.

S&P 500 Dividend Yield

As you can clearly see in the chart, The S&P 500 Dividend Yield Is Screaming and telling you that it is well into bubble territory and will eventually correct. When it does correct or crash, will you be prepared or warned, or will you just go down with the markets?

 

 

S&P500 P/E Ratio

S&P500 P/E Ratio

The S&P500 P/E Ratio shows whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued. It’s not a matter which Stocks you own in your portfolio because when the P/E Ratio turns EXTREME, VIRTUALLY ALL STOCKS Crash.

The price-earnings ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s stock price by its earnings per share. In other words, the S&P500 P/E ratio shows what the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its current earnings.

Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced this adjusted ratio to a wider audience of investors. The P/E Ratio is illustrated below and is extremely simple to understand with a quick view of the chart.

So, is it under or overvalued?

S&P500 P/E Ratio

Today the P/E Ratio is sitting at 28 and is in Extreme Bubble Territory and getting higher!

All you have to understand from the chart is that since 1880,

“Every single time the S&P500 P/E Ratio rose above 20, the stock market crashed; Every Single Time!”

You know what to expect, right?

Tomorrow we will show you an entirely different chart that will simply stun you.

Their Last Hoorah!

Their Last Hoorah!

The Last HoorahThis is the last hoorah for the old Democratic leaders. They know they are soon “out the door” because of their age.

Not having to stand for reelection because Nancy Pelosi (born March 26, 1940) who is now 80 years old and Charles “Chuck” Schumer (born November 23, 1950) who is 70 now, and Joseph “Joe” Biden Jr.(born November 20, 1942) who is 78 do not stand a chance in hell of holding on to power much longer.

They are now more desperate to overthrow Trump with the help of the media as they deal a death-blow to the investment community.

Beside their plan to restore taxes to the pre-Reagan era of 70%, their last hoorah is to impose a tax on every buy or sell transaction.

Wall Street has been dumping money into Governor Cuomo’s coffers trying to hold off this proposal.

He has been standing up against the Democrats in Washington but this is yet still part of the intense battle going on for the 2020 election.

Should You Borrow Gold?

Should You Borrow Gold?

Should You Borrow Gold? Gold does not bear interest which is why it has often been called a dead asset.

It costs to store it and with no income from the investment without selling it has always been one of the major obstacles to institutional investing in gold. Others have argued that central banks were the biggest lenders of gold and they did so to manipulate prices.

That myth has never stood the test of time for they were lending gold in up and down markets which never altered the natural cycle. In general, any entity which owns gold has always sought to lease it out to earn income.

The borrowers have been generally mines who may need to smooth their cash flow and will borrow gold to sell now which is replaced when the newly mined gold is refined and then used to repay the loan. Other borrowers have tended to be jewelry manufacturers who may be operating on a contract basis to buy gold and again need to borrow to smooth out the flow of manufacture.

Borrowing gold has normally been conducted at interest rates which are below that of borrowing cash because there are costs to physically deliver gold. Consequently, there have been also arbitrages on the interest rates between gold loans and cash loans. This is another whole new area of complexity. Therefore, the fact that gold loans have gone negative is indeed a reflection of lower demand from some industries like the jewelry trade as stores are locked down and people have lost their jobs and marriages have crashed.

If we look at the numbers from the Gold Council you will see that in 2019 new mine gold declined. The sharp rise in the gold supply is coming from people selling their old gold jewelry we called scrap. The rise in gold scrap is reflecting the decline in demand from the jewelry trade.

Indeed, the World Gold Council put out that the gold jewelry trade declined 6% in 2019. As the recession expands into 2022, the retail jewelry demand will decline rather than expand.

With retail down, this is contributing to gold lease rates moving negative.

So, the answer to the question of “Should You Borrow Gold?” is NO. However, you can profit handsomely whether Gold’s price rises or declines.  

InterAnalyst members are immediately notified of directional momentum in Daily, Weekly, and Monthly momentum charts with signals like the actual samples above.

Expanding Socialist Authoritarianism

Expanding Socialist Authoritarianism

Expanding Socialist Authoritarianism is getting far worse by the day and it appears that our Algorithmic Cyclical Models on War & Civil Unrest are simply on target, have started, and are expanding rapidly.

India is becoming confrontational against China and oppressing its own people which appears to be in a secret agenda with the Globalist Socialism Crowd trying to isolate China and force them to surrender their sovereignty to their new world order.

We see Germany moving to prohibit any more demonstrations which embarrassed the government in Berlin. In Greece, we have deep concerns that they are criminalizing free speech and authorizing the arrest any anyone who goes against COVID restrictions. Greece has banned international flights with the United States trying to put pressure on for the elections to also overthrow Trump which has become a European agenda. The US Embassy in Athens has warned Americans about travel to Greece that “Travelers should be prepared for the possibility that additional travel restrictions could be implemented by the Greek government with little or no advance notice.

What is really frightening is that the Democrats are taking on the policies advocated by Nazi-style views of Elizabeth Warren. It is one thing to read in history books about how oppressive governments became which led to World War II and to see it unfolding before our eyes.

The Socialists have created such a divide among the people this is doing monumental damage to the population turning brother against brother. In California, a woman threw a hot cup of coffee in the face of a man on the street who was not wearing a mask. This entire issue of masks and social distancing has created a mindset that being even close to anyone is dangerous. Many no longer shake hands.

This Expanding Socialistic Authoritarian is the very essence of how to destroy a working economy and a civilization.

Presidential Stock Market Direction

Presidential Stock Market Direction

The Presidential Stock Market Direction will be determined by who enters the White House. The “WHY  & HOW” is clear…

Presidential Stock Market DirectionThe recent MMT implies that a Presidential Stock Market Direction win by Biden will prove to be a complete joke. This would be much WORSE than Jimmy Carter who inspired the collapse of confidence in the dollar and government leading to the 1980 gold high. Capital will flee public assets and shift into private.

One the other hand, the worse of the economic crisis is external to the USA became many countries like Germany depend on selling to consumers outside their own country. The likelihood of a breakup of the EU and their idea of canceling currency and moving to perpetual bonds that would even wipe out pensions in Europe will push capital outside and into the US stock market.

Keep in mind that this is a Monetary Crisis Cycle intermixed with a Sovereign Debt Crisis and this entire coronavirus nonsense has so accelerated the debt crisis that now the politicians fear what will happen if they lift the restrictions on paying rents and mortgages.

The politicians around the world have responded in such an exaggerated manner to this virus that they will NEVER admit a mistake. Thus, they must oppress the people and hence we have entered into rising authoritarianism for the next decade.

Although the US Market will have a Slingshot move will occur no matter the Presidential Stock Market Direction, US retirement shares market will follow Europe, so be prepared. Stay close to your Wealth Preserver and Maximizer Signals to prevent a potential retirement account wipeout as this election will become the most violent in our countries history, and it will continue to escalate through 2032.

Lockdown Tsunami

Lockdown Tsunami

Lockdown Tsunami #2 has just begun, and that is really bad news for the U.S. economy.

Lockdown Tsunami #1 resulted in the permanent closing of more than 100,000 U.S. businesses, colossal lines at food banks around the nation, and the loss of tens of millions of jobs.  Needless to say, this new wave of lock-downs will make things even worse, and some are speculating that this is precisely what Democrats want.

If the U.S. economy continues to fall apart as we approach the election in November, the thinking is that this will make President Trump look bad and will make it more likely that people will cast votes for Democrats.  But there is also the possibility that this could backfire in a huge way for the left.  If millions of Americans start to identify the Democrats as “the party of the lock-downs”, that could actually greatly help President Trump in November.

At this point, the battle lines are becoming quite clear.  President Trump and other top Republicans are strongly against more lockdowns, but Democratic politicians in many areas of the country are starting to institute them anyway.  In fact, we just learned that all schools in Los Angeles, San Diego, Atlanta and Nashville will be closed at the beginning of the new school year…

“Resisting pressure from President Donald Trump, three of the nation’s largest school districts said Monday that they will begin the new school year with all students learning from home. Schools in Los Angeles, San Diego and Atlanta will begin entirely online, officials said Monday. Schools in Nashville plan to do the same, at least through Labor Day.”

Other major cities are expected to follow suit.  Of course considering the quality of the education in most of our public schools, most of those kids won’t exactly be missing too much.

Ultimately, closing the schools won’t have too much of an economic impact, but shutting down most of the businesses in our largest state certainly will.  On Monday, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a comprehensive lock-down for 30 California counties which account for “about 80 percent of California’s population”

“Newsom, a Democrat, announced during a press briefing that all bars across the state must close up shop and that restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and card rooms must suspend indoor activities.The governor also announced that all gyms, places of worship, malls, personal care services, barbershops, salons, and non-critical offices in counties on the state’s “monitoring list” had to shut down under the new order. The order affects more than 30 counties which are home to about 80 percent of California’s population.”

Newsom is a political opportunist, and I guarantee you that he wouldn’t be doing this unless he truly believed that it would help Democrats in November.

But I think that Newsom and other top Democrats have greatly underestimated how much the American people detest COVID-19 restrictions at this point.  We have been witnessing a huge backlash all over the country, and even though California is far more liberal than most other states, a backlash has been brewing there as well.

If the Democrats are not very careful, they are going to lose an election that they could have very easily won.

First of all, they should have never nominated Joe Biden.  It is obvious to everyone that he is physically and mentally declining at a very rapid pace, and videos of him “acting creepy” will be viewed millions upon millions of times over the coming months.  Democrats have known about Biden’s creepy behavior for many years, but they decided to give the nomination to him anyway.

Secondly, most top Democrats have refused to strongly denounce the rioting, looting and violence that have happened around the nation, and this is going to push a whole lot of people toward the Republicans.

Thirdly, the backlash against these new lockdowns is going to be directed primarily toward Democrats.  If Democratic politicians push too far, this will be an issue that deeply hurts them in November.

But despite all of these mistakes, it is possible that the Democrats could still come out on top, because Trump and the Republicans are making lots of political mistakes as well.

If Trump wants to make a comeback in the polls, he really needs to fully embrace an anti-lock-down message, because that would strongly resonate with tens of millions of voters.

The first wave of lockdowns certainly didn’t stop the spread of the virus, and more lockdowns will not stop it from spreading either.  And now three separate scientific studies have shown that COVID-19 antibodies disappear very, very rapidly, and that means that a vaccine is not going to end this crisis and we will never reach a point of “herd immunity”.  So we are going to have to find a way to function effectively as this virus circulates around the globe year after year, because it isn’t going to go away.

We simply cannot shut down the economy every time the number of cases starts to surge again.  The damage that we have already done to the U.S. economy has been incalculable, and now these new lockdowns will do even more damage.

But the WHO continues to insist that more restrictions are needed in Lockdown Tsunami #2…

“Let me be blunt, too many countries are headed in the wrong direction, the virus remains public enemy number one,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual briefing from the U.N. agency’s headquarters in Geneva. “If basics are not followed, the only way this pandemic is going to go – it is going to get worse and worse and worse.”

What would the WHO have us do?

Would they like us to all lock ourselves in our homes indefinitely?

The WHO keeps touting a future vaccine, but if COVID-19 antibodies disappear after just a few months, there is no way that a vaccine is going to end this pandemic.

And many Americans will never, ever take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances.

As I discussed in an article that I posted earlier, it looks like we are just going to have to accept the fact that COVID-19 is going to be around year after year.

It is easy for the “experts” to tell us that everyone should just stay home, but the price tag for the first wave of lockdowns was astronomical.  Thanks to all of the emergency measures that Congress passed, the U.S. government ran a budget deficit of 864 billion dollars in the month of June…

The US budget deficit surged to a record-breaking $864 billion in June, the Treasury Department said on Monday. The increase is the product of the federal government’s efforts to combat the corona-virus pandemic and its economic fallout. The government collected about $240 billion in tax revenue in June, the Treasury said, and federal spending overall reached $1.1 trillion.

To put that in perspective, it took from the founding of our nation until 1980 for the U.S. government to accumulate a total of 864 billion dollars of debt.

And now we have added that much to the national debt in just one month.

We simply cannot keep doing this.

No matter what we do, COVID-19 is going to keep spreading, and we are going to have to learn how to deal with this virus for a very long time to come.

Lockdown Tsunami #2 is definitely not the answer, but unfortunately many of our politicians are convinced otherwise. So U.S. economic conditions will continue to deteriorate, and the economic depression that began earlier this year will continue through the end of 2020 and beyond. We encourage wealth and retirement account protection immediately because when the economy turns down, your retirement account will get wiped out but you family can be safe from collapse.

Source Contributor

3 Up Gaps That Must Fill

3 Up Gaps That Must Fill

When it comes to the stock market, never say never because every possible market event will happen at least once. Especially events you least expect.

Here’s one that is positive for your portfolio.

There are specific events that have been proven through over 200 years of actual stock market history.

In fact, this one is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt and you can make money with it very soon:

Up & Down Gaps Close 91% Of The Time!

For those of you who do not know what a gap is, and how important it is, here is a simple explanation.

Let’s now look at the current chart below:

As you can see, the  Standard Poor’s 500 chart above reveals 3 Up Gaps in price that, at a better than 91% chance will eventually fill to the downside. The reason that pushes this to the ranks of “it will now LIKELY move sooner than later is the fact that all 3 Up Gaps occurred within 3 months and this is almost unprecedented.

Watch out below. We are not trying to scare you, quite the opposite, we are giving you a kind warning.

So lets add it up:

“A 91% chance of filling every market gap up or down for the last 200 years?” 

Prepare for anything because the last time more than 3 Gaps were closed within only 5 weeks was February 2020! 

What is hard to imagine is that the rise lasted 1,458 days for the 5 Up Gaps to be created between December 2016 and February 2020. It took exactly 22 Corona-Crash days to close (fill all 5) to the downside.

The point is clear. This is not a question of will the current 3 Up Gaps fill, but when will they fill and will you avoid the decline?

You must be ready to avoid the coming decline unless you have 1,458 more days to wait for it to come back to break even.

As we already demonstrated to our members on January 18, 2020 with a market Red Light exit signal, InterAnalyst will warn and protect our members when it turns down again.

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