When it comes to the stock market, never say never because every possible market event will happen at least once. Especially events you least expect.
Here’s one that is positive for your portfolio.
There are specific events that have been proven through over 200 years of actual stock market history.
In fact, this one is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt and you can make money with it very soon:
Up & Down Gaps Close 91% Of The Time!
For those of you who do not know what a gap is, and how important it is, here is a simple explanation.
Let’s now look at the current chart below:
As you can see, the Standard Poor’s 500 chart above reveals 3 Up Gaps in price that, at a better than 91% chance will eventually fill to the downside. The reason that pushes this to the ranks of “it will now LIKELY move sooner than later is the fact that all 3 Up Gaps occurred within 3 months and this is almost unprecedented.
Watch out below. We are not trying to scare you, quite the opposite, we are giving you a kind warning.
So lets add it up:
“A 91% chance of filling every market gap up or down for the last 200 years?”
Prepare for anything because the last time more than 3 Gaps were closed within only 5 weeks was February 2020!
What is hard to imagine is that the rise lasted 1,458 days for the 5 Up Gaps to be created between December 2016 and February 2020. It took exactly 22 Corona-Crash days to close (fill all 5) to the downside.
The point is clear. This is not a question of will the current 3 Up Gaps fill, but when will they fill and will you avoid the decline?
You must be ready to avoid the coming decline unless you have 1,458 more days to wait for it to come back to break even.
As we already demonstrated to our members on January 18, 2020 with a market Red Light exit signal, InterAnalyst will warn and protect our members when it turns down again.
“Face reality, and that means admitting that “the U.S. economy has plunged into a depression.”
This is already the worst economic downturn that America has experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and we are right in the middle of the largest spike in unemployment in all of U.S. history by a very wide margin.
Of course, it was fear of COVID-19 that burst our economic bubble, and fear of this virus is going to be with us for a very long time to come. So we need to brace ourselves for an extended economic crisis, and at this point, even Time Magazine is openly referring to this new downturn as an “economic depression”.
Needless to say, there will be a tremendous amount of debate about how deep it will eventually become, but everyone should be able to agree that our nation hasn’t seen anything like this since before World War II.
In order to prove my point, let me share the following 10 numbers with you…
#1 According to a study that was just released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, more than 100,000 U.S. businesses have already permanently shut down during this pandemic, and that represents millions of jobs that are never coming back.
#2 The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now projecting that U.S. GDP will shrink by 42.8 percent during the second quarter…
“A new GDP forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for the three months through June estimates an unprecedented drop of 42.8 percent. The bank describes the data as a “nowcast” or real-time, compared with the official government report of GDP, which is dated. The first-quarter preliminary data, which showed a 4.8 percent dip, included a limited period of impact from COVID-19.”
#3 On Friday we learned that U.S. retail sales were down 16.4 percent during the month of April, and that is a new all-time record.
#4 U.S. factory output was down 13.7 percent last month, and that was the worst number ever recorded for that category.
#5 U.S. industrial production fell 11.2 percent last month, and that represented the worst number in 101 years.
#6 On Thursday, we learned that the number of Americans that have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits during this pandemic has risen by another 2.9 million, and that brings the grand total for this entire crisis to 36.5 million. To put that number in perspective, at the lowest point of the Great Depression of the 1930s only about 15 million Americans were unemployed.
#7 According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the real rate of unemployment in the U.S. is now 30.7 percent.
#8 According to a survey Fed officials just conducted, almost 40 percent of Americans with a household income of less than $40,000 a year say that they have lost a job during this crisis.
#9 One study has concluded that 42 percent of the job losses during this pandemic will end up being permanent.
#10 According to a professor of economics at Columbia University, the U.S. homeless population could rise by up to 45 percent by the end of this calendar year.
We have never seen economic numbers this horrifying, and more awful economic numbers are coming in the months ahead.
At this point, things are so bad that even Fed Chair Jerome Powell is openly admitting that he doesn’t really know how long this new economic downturn will last…
“This economy will recover…We’ll get through this. It may take a while. It may take a period of time. It could stretch through the end of next year,” Powell said during a rare televised interview that aired on “60 Minutes” Sunday night. “We really don’t know. We hope that it will be shorter than that, but no one really knows.”
In the months ahead, there are a few sectors that you will want to keep a particularly close eye on, and one of them is the commercial real estate market. The following comes from Zero Hedge…
“Fast forward to today, coronavirus outbreak, and the ensuing lockdown, has essentially frozen the commercial real estate market. Buildings that were once used for restaurants, offices, hotels, spas, and or anything else that is classified non-essential have seen soaring vacancies.
This is single handily sending the commercial property market into chaos. As vacancies soar, tremendous downward pressure is being put on almost every asset class tied to commercial real estate.
The latest TREPP remittance data compiled by Morgan Stanley showed a quarter of all commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) could be on the verge of default.”
I am personally convinced that we are on the precipice of the greatest commercial real estate implosion in American history.
As the dominoes tumble, it is going to send wave after wave of devastation through the financial industry, and it is going to make the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2008 look like child’s play.
But at least bankruptcy lawyers will have plenty of work. Last week we learned that J.C. Penney filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and of course the bankruptcies that we have seen so far will just be the tip of the iceberg.
I think that politicians all over America are going to deeply regret overreacting to COVID-19, because nobody is going to be able to put the pieces back together now that our economic bubble has burst.
Sadly, very few people understood how shaky our debt-fueled economic “boom” was, and ultimately it didn’t take that much to push us into a new economic depression.
And now every additional crisis that comes along is just going to escalate our economic troubles. This is going to be one very long nightmare, and there will be no waking up from it any time soon.
Even before COVID-19 came along, homelessness had become a massive problem in many of our major cities, and now tent cities are rapidly multiplying in size.
There is going to be so much economic pain in the months ahead, and it could have all been avoided if we had made much different choices as a nation.
But we didn’t, and so now we all get to pay the price.
So, I ask you, what if he is correct in his judgment and collapse is coming sooner than later?
Are you prepared for what is going to happen to your retirement and investment account values?
Are you sheltered from those accounts declining 40%? 50%, 60%, or more.
The Wealth Preserver Membership can protect your account from any stock market collapse. Please know that until it does collapse, your investments continue to grow as usual.
Jed Clampett’s Oil Trade Signals are unmatched because they make logical common sense.
Although Jed had received little formal education, Jed Clampett has a good deal of common sense.
So, lets take a look and what is occurring in the markets that started with the Corona-Crash, and see if have Jed’s common sense to make tycoon size profits in OIL… even if you’re not an oil type of investor! It is just common sense!
Just 2 days ago, Oil futures “May 2020” contract reached about a minus -$35 dollars per barrel. Understand that this is a DOMESTIC market and it does not reflect the world price of oil. But all oil is falling.
InterAnalyst Members, who trade oil and sold or shorted when the signals came out on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts below are smiling, but not as much as they will be when the signals turn bullish!
(Please click on the charts to maximize)
The contractual terms of the WTI Crude Oil contracts traded on the CME NYMEX market are based upon the domestic pipeline delivered crude oil contract.
This is not the crude in tankers. Because of the sudden drop in domestic demand thanks to the lockdown, there is no demand for Gasoline and even Jet Fuel has declined in demand.
This resulted in the filling of the majority of storage facilities inside the United States for the supply was coming in by pipeline rather than trucks or tankers. This is why the domestic crude oil market collapsed ahead of expiration. The GLUT is reflected in the United States and this is impacting domestic production that will lead to the drop which in turn will swing back and eventually materialize in higher prices and production then declines and jobs are lost.
This situation does NOT reflect the scope of the international market in Asia or Europe. BRENT Crude oil is the international benchmark reference index price for the majority of global oil markets. BRENT Crude prices are holding above $25 dollars per barrel for immediate physical delivery.
Looking at the price chart of DBO, the ETF we track for OIL traders, once the economic news settles down, and it will, do you think OIL will go back to a normal price? It is 95% off its highs!
Are you kidding? Jed already bought by the time you read “Are you kidding?”.
Let me ask you a second question. Once the Corona-virus settles down, and it will, do you think people around the world will need oil again? How about when a Corona-vaccine is developed and all economies explode? That day could make you 100 – 500% alone.
We have Jed’s common sense, do you? Best of all, we will track it all for you in the members blog.
Once the economic news settles, we will provide our members a signal that will explode their profits. And as it goes up and down along the way, which it certainly will, why not capture gains and the avoid declines the whole?
This will be a bullish move of historic proportions and can set you up for historic profits… the kind you’ll read about in the history books.
Jed Clampett knows this one is a “No Brainer”.
And because it is obvious, if you become a member today, we are offering you a 25% Lifetime Discount. Use the Promo-Code “Wealth25” when you sign up for your 15-day free trial.
Emerging-markets investing pioneer Mark Mobius made those remarks Tuesday in an interview with CNBC, putting him in the investing camp that expects an inevitable cascade of brutal economic data and corporate earnings hasn’t been fully discounted by investors.
Mobius, who founded Mobius Capital Partners in 2018 after a three-decade run at Franklin Templeton Investments, said corporate earnings would be “pretty bad” and that while some bargains have emerged, investors should keep some cash ready to deploy in the event of a further market downturn.
U.S. stocks hit all-time highs in February, then plunged into a bear market as the global spread of COVID-19 forced the U.S. and countries around the world to largely lock down their economies in an effort to contain the outbreak. Stocks have taken back a large chunk of lost ground since March 23, however, with recent gains tied to expectations the pandemic is near its peak, turning attention to efforts to reopen economies.
Market bulls have argued that the unprecedented nature of the shock and the massive response from the Federal Reserve, other central banks, and governments have rendered most comparisons to past bear markets debatable.
Others have cautioned that stocks are largely sticking to the bear market script.
“Although there are some opportunities to buy, I would say it’s probably a good idea to keep some powder dry for another downturn,” he said. “We might see a double bottom.”
This Bear Market Rally is still not complete but should be shortly and Here’s When The Bear Market Rally Ends.
We are actually still in a bear market rally with today clearly being another ‘green’ day, it is likely the rally will continue until the herd jumps in again.
It is not uncommon what-so-ever to re-touch near a 50% level during voracious bear markets, however, at this point you can actually argue the market is more over-valued now given the environment than when the Standard & Poor’s was near 3400 ironically enough.
The markets are already trying to price in a possible slowdown in the COVID-19 pandemic. But, even if the Pandemic miraculously disappeared today, the massive economic shock won’t disappear anytime soon.
Major indices all over the world have already plummeted into Bear Territories and the recent rally is simply a correction. In fact, if you look at previous bear markets, you will find plenty of temporary Bullish rallies within the larger Bearish move.
- Falling Output. Less will be produced leading to lower real GDP and lower average incomes. Wages tend to rise much more slowly or not at all.
- Unemployment. The biggest problem of a recession is a rise in cyclical unemployment. Because firms produce less, they demand fewer workers leading to a rise in unemployment.
- Higher Government Borrowing. In a recession, government finances tend to deteriorate. People pay fewer taxes because of higher unemployment and they need to spend more on unemployment benefits. This deterioration in government finances can cause markets to be worried about levels of government borrowing leading to higher interest rate costs. This rise in bond yields may put pressure on governments to reduce budget deficits through spending cuts and tax rises. This can make the recession worse and more difficult to get out of. This was particularly a problem for many Eurozone economies in the aftermath of 2009 recession.
- Hysteresis. This is the argument that a rise in temporary (cyclical) unemployment can translate into higher structural (long-term) unemployment. hysteresis
- Falling asset prices. In a recession, there is less demand for buying fixed assets such as housing. Falling house prices can aggravate the fall in consumer spending and also increase bank losses. This fall in asset prices is particularly a feature of a balance sheet recession (e.g. 2009-10) recession.
- Falling share prices. Lower profits lead to lower levels of share prices.
- Social problems related to rising unemployment, e.g. higher rates of social exclusion.
- Increased inequality. A recession tends to aggravate income inequality and relative poverty. In particular, unemployment (relying on unemployment benefits) is one of the largest causes of relative poverty.
- Rise in Protectionism. In response to a global downturn, countries are often encouraged to respond with protectionist measures (e.g. raising import duties). This leads to retaliation and a general decline in trade which has adverse effects.
These factors are not at the top of the news yet cycle right now. But I assure you that when the Corona-Virus takes a back seat to the Presidential Election, the reality will set in and we will witness a new test of the bottom.
So, such rallies as the one we are seeing now will be sold aggressively and markets will plummet into fresh lows. Until a 50%-55% drop has happened, we can’t start thinking about bottom formation.
Conservative investors should continue to follow the Wealth Preserver signals as is proven historically, the signals will protect you from every market crash that matters.
As an investor, you need to Keep Calm And Run For The Hills.
Everything was a classic.
The financial industry reported that a record number of brokerage accounts were opening and new investors were running to their local discount broker to join the club. Of course, when this happens, it always happens at the end of a bull run sucking in the “average investor” who is always late!
In fact, I got the message loud and clear when a buddy, who never invested in his life asked me… “So, how do I buy shares.”
Honestly, I became a bit upset as this always tips off the professional. The know when the armature wants in, it is time to look at a market a correction or a bear is lurking.
We all now know, the markets fell off a cliff that we call the Corona-Crash.
This is how we initially knew it was coming. But then the chart below warned of the coming collapse. In addition, this chart helps answer the question, should you get back in now?
Let me explain…
As you can see in the Dow Jones chart, the market has taken a big swift decline down. And now with a bit of a rally, people are wanting to jump back in. Should you?
Before you jump back in, look at the lower half of the image called the Stochastic.
What you notice is that it is a supporting indicator that will help you to invest at the right time. The right time is when the Blue Stochastic RSI line is above the Red line and BOTH are below the 15 level!
Looking at the action today, you are clearly warned not to invest because its TOO LATE. Clearly, the same stochastic chart shows that the level is now above 85 and the Red Line is above the Blue line.
Once this current rise tops and your Maximizer Pro shows a sell, you will see the markets rollover into a new decline as has always occurred.
This becomes very clear if you look back and notice the October – January 2018 market decline relative to the “greed” based stochastic. By looking at both together you can easily see when to get in and out of the market.
As for today, if your buddy asks, “Hey, which discount broker do you use?”
Take a quick look at the stochastic charts, call your broker, keep calm and run for the hills!
Notice that during each of the previous two bear market cycles, confidence dropped by an average of 58 points.
This past week, we saw early indications of the unemployment that is coming to America as jobless claims surged to 10 million, and unemployment in April will surge to 15-20%.
Confidence, and ultimately consumption, Which comprises 70% of GDP, will plummet as job losses mount. It is incredibly difficult to remain optimistic when you are unemployed.
No Light At The End Of The Tunnel Yet
Most importantly, as shown below, the majority of businesses will run out of money long before SBA loans, or financial assistance can be provided. This will lead to higher, and a longer-duration of unemployment.
What the cycle tells us is that jobless claims, unemployment, and economic growth are going to worsen materially over the next couple of quarters.
The problem with the current economic backdrop, and mounting job losses, is the vast majority of American’s were woefully unprepared for any disruption to their income going into recession.
Two important points:
- The economy will eventually recover, and life will return to normal.
- The damage will take much longer to heal, and future growth will run at a lower long-term rate due to the escalation of debts and deficits.
For investors, this means a greater range of stock market volatility and near-zero rates of return over the next decade.
The Bear Still Rules
History tells the story covering the last 8 full fledged bear markets: The should be sold into!
In other words, if you have taken the decline thus far, When you see the rally explode up, sell it and preserve as much as you can before the next dip.
On Friday, our colleague, Jeffery Marcus of TP Analytics, penned the following:
- When the 11-year bull market trend ended, other shorter trends were also violated. In late February, the S&P 500 fell below its 14-month uptrend line, and in early March the 13-month uptrend line was violated. Those breaks set in place the steep declines seen in the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March.
- While it may seem like an epic battle is going on around S&P 500 2500, the real problem is the downtrend forming from the 2/19 high.
- TPA still continues to see real long term support in the 3% range between 2110 and 2180. A less likely move below that support, would leave long term support levels of the lows of 2014 and 2015.
S&P 500 – Long Term
His analysis agrees with our own:
“While the technical picture of the market also suggests the recent “bear market” rally will likely fade sooner than later. Such an advance will ‘lure’ investors back into the market, thinking the ‘bear market’ is over. Importantly, despite the sizable rally, participation has remained extraordinarily weak. If the market was seeing strong buying, as suggested by the media, then we should see sizable upticks in the percent measures of advancing issues, issues at new highs, and a rising number of stocks above their 200-dma.”
On a daily basis, these measures all have room to improve in the short-term. However, the market has now confirmed longer-term technical signals suggesting the “bear market” has only just started.
There are reasons to be optimistic about the markets in the very short-term. We will get through this crisis. People will return to work. The economy will start moving forward again.
However, it won’t immediately go right back to where we were previously. We are continuing to extend the amount of time the economy will be “shut down,” which exacerbates the decline in the employment, and personal consumption data. The feedback loop from that data into corporate profits, and earnings, is going to make valuations more problematic even with low interest rates currently.
This is NOT the time to try and “speculate” on a bottom of the market. You might get lucky, but there is very high risk you could wind up losing even more capital.
For long-term investors like our Wealth Preserver Members, just remain patient and let the market dictate when the bottom has been formed. As you can see in the image below, the InterAnalyst Green Buy signal will come as it has every other time. But it only signals when the market is on solid footing.
Although we continue to author opinion and analysis, please remember that our writings do not replace the green buy and red sell signals derived from over 140 years of market analytics. Use the Wealth Maximizer Pro to help give you daily charts and signals to help with daily market direction. Apply those to the Wealth Maximizer Weekly charts and signals to give you more confidence in the direction.
We have seen a hefty relief rally but does Another Leg Down loom? For those who are Wealth Maximizer Pro members, you have caught the nice profitable rally, contratulations.
I am seeing some “disturbing” signs that the market is very close to re-testing the lows that we previously have made, or, will it form another leg down loom?.
At the very least, it is 98% certain we will come to test the lows around 2250 at any moment in time. It is possible that we have another final leg down, and I believe that we likely will.
It is important for you to remain patient instead of panic buying and falling into bull trap.
Here’s why we know that the last leg down is coming:
The VIX remains incredibly elevated (60+) despite big pops in the markets and has not subsided. This tells you another sell-off is looming. Whats more, it’s supported by many other technical and fundamental factors.
For the market to continue up and ignore these factors would be unprecedented.
Prepare for another drop to the eventual bottom.
The Destructive Coronavirus Truth is much more dangerous than the virus itself.
No one has stated it more clearly that Mr. Celente in this video. We appreciate and value his Wealth Preserver Membership.
You absolutely must watch every minute of this video as he is as animated as ever.
He explains the who, what, why, where, and when of this whole mess. More importantly, he does not mince words of how its effecting the economy.
Fortunately our members have been protected from this crash and are preparing the coming slingshot up. Holding the right investment will be vital and once this crash and slingshot back up is over, the real depression and 90% crash is coming.
The Wealth Preserver will guide our members step by step through the future like a GPS system for your Investments and retirement accounts.
Use the following promo code: Wealth25