P/E Ratio: The Over/Under Value Market Indicator

P/E Ratio: The Over/Under Value Market Indicator

In section 5 of yesterday’s post I quickly introduced an investment topic called the Shiller P/E (CAPE).

This is the most significant, proven, long-term directional indicator that has ever existed for long-term stock market direction.

It is not a daily or weekly trading system but can certainly help you know which direction the market is moving as it reaches a top or bottom.

The Shiller (CAPE) P/E Ratio is now famous, yet forgotten because most Financial Advisors either keep it under wraps or have never been taught its true power. Essentially, a high P/E means Over Priced stocks.

The chart below is the Shiller P/E Ratio dating back to 1880.

As you can see, the median P/E since 1880 is 15.77 and that is enough data to understand that historically investors over the last 140 years have recognized that a share of company stock should be roughly 16 times its earnings.

In clearer terms, if a company made $1, its share price should be $15.77.

Horrible Investor Value

Now, take a look at the chart above to view the Over Valued and Under Valued P/E Levels.

When the Shiller (CAPE) is 20 and above, stock prices are too high for a long-term buy and hold strategy. Performance will likely remain poor for up to 20 years.

Most importantly, any time the P/E rose above 20, it eventually and ALWAYS back down below 10, typically below 7, before it bottomed.

As you can see in the image below, when the Shiller P/E Ratio rises above 20, it can take many years for values to get back down. The year of the great depression brought the P/E back in line within 4 years. However, outside of great depression, it takes up to 20 years or longer to get stocks back to a fair price.

Our current period dating back to the 1999 top is still declining back to fair prices. Here’s the point: Buying the stock market when the CAPE P/E Ratio if the S&P500 index is above 20 is an immense risk of little to no return on your money.

Great Investor Value

Now, when the Shiller (CAPE) hits 10 or below, then it is an amazing time to Buy and Hold the market indexes or any stock of value. Historically, a P/E of 4 – 7 will allow you to to perform extremely well over the next 7 – 20 years. In fact, you will perform 10,000% – 30,000% or better. That is what buying at the right P/E price point will do for you.

For a little clarification, had you invested $10 in the S&P500 on January 1, 1985 (P/E ratio of 10.36), today you would have over $3,500! Not bad for timing with the Shiller P/E!

So lets look to see if this is a great time to be a Buy and Hold Investor like in 1985?

Reviewing the same chart (below) modified to include colors indicating when to invest for optimum Buy and Hold performance.

Avoid Buy & Hold investing if the Shiller P/E value is within the Red area.  This area has proven to deliver returns similar to bank accounts if you deduct inflation from the return. Not good.

However, if the Shiller P/E ratio value is within the Green area, you can buy the S&P 500 Index and make significant long term returns.

Great Investor Value

Now, when the Shiller (CAPE) hits 10 or below, then it is an amazing time to Buy and Hold the market indexes or any stock of value. Historically, a P/E of 4-7 will allow you to to perform extremely well over the next 7 – 20 years. In fact, you will perform 10,000% – 30,000% or better. That is what buying at the right P/E price point will do for you.

For a little clarification, had you invested $10 in the S&P500 on January 1, 1985 (P/E ratio of 10.36), today you would have over $3,500! Not bad for timing with the Shiller P/E!

So lets look to see if this is a great time to be a Buy and Hold Investor like in 1985?

Reviewing the same chart (below) modified to include colors indicating when to invest for optimum Buy and Hold performance.

Avoid Buy & Hold investing if the Shiller P/E value is within the Red area.  This area has proven to deliver returns similar to bank accounts if you deduct inflation from the return. Not good.

However, if the Shiller P/E ratio value is within the Green area, you can buy the S&P 500 Index and make significant long term returns.

The point of this entire article is to let compare where we are today relative to 140 years of real data. 

Significantly, every single time there “was a significant crash or two” associated with the decline back to value. Here is reality:

At a Shiller P/E Ratio of 26.97, we are not nearly as high as 44 in 1999. But, just to get back to a normal Shiller P/E bottoming area below 10, the stock market will have to drop by 62% from here!

27 – 10 = 17

17 / 27 = -62% 

If you are a Buy & Hold Investor, you should know that based on history dating back to 1880, you are NOT  positioned for strong buy and hold returns. In fact, you are dreadfully positioned right now though 2032. 

Can you afford a 45%-60% decline back to value. Its progressing to that as you read this historical lesson.

You must find a strong, well proven, historically accurate system that allows you to invest when the markets are moving up, on the sideline when the markets head down, and back in when they head up again.

You will do vastly better that Buy & Hold if own a Monthly, Weekly, or Daily professional trade signal platform that will help guide you through the next 20 years. Your membership will put you light years ahead of everyone else who is Buying and Holding at precisely the wrong time as history has proven.

We will help get you to where you want starting today following simple Green and Red lights.

The P/E Ratio Is Screaming At You

The P/E Ratio Is Screaming At You

The P/E Ratio Is Screaming At You so today I am laying the groundwork for tomorrows post. So lets get started and learn about the P/E Ratio.

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. P/E ratios are used by investors and analysts to help determine the relative value of a company’s shares in an apples-to-apples comparison.

It can also be used to compare a company against its own historical record or to compare aggregate markets against one another or over time. The ubiquitous P/E ratio is typically the first metric investors learn on their journey towards financial freedom.

One of the biggest mistakes I see new investors make is their use of the P/E ratio because the P/E ratio has some significant drawbacks that you should be aware of before we teach you the profitable and proven benefits of this indicator.

Today, lets cover 5 points the ratio will not teach us and tomorrow we will learn precisely how it can tell us which direction the markets are going shortly. 

What the P/E Ratio Teaches us is vitally important so first we have to quickly learn what it does not teach us. 

1. Price is not a good measure for what a company is worth

The first issue with the P/E ratio is the ‘P’ part of the formula. Typically, the ‘P’ stands for the share PRICE which corresponds to the market capitalization of the company. But there’s a problem with using only market capitalization. Market cap only represents the contribution of equity shareholders. Which means it doesn’t include any debt or cash on the balance sheet.

If you want to know the true worth of a company surely you need to include debt and cash? To do so, it’s better to use an alternative such as enterprise value which is the market cap, plus total debt, minus cash. Often, the market cap of a company will be similar to the enterprise value but sometimes it can be vastly different. GE, for example, has a market cap of over $52 billion but it’s enterprise value is more than double that at $111 billion. If you use market cap you get a lower P/E ratio than if you used the enterprise value. So by substituting market cap with enterprise value the formula immediately becomes more useful.

2. EPS is not a good measure of company earnings

Just like the ‘P’ in ‘P/E’ is inadequate, the ‘E’ part of the formula is also misleading. Typically, the ‘E’ represents earnings per share which is usually reported as the trailing twelve month EPS or in other words the net profit over the last 12 months.

The problem here is that EPS or net profit contains many different components and is therefore not necessarily a good indication of the real profitability of a company. For example, net profit is reported after accounting procedures such as depreciation and amortization.

These techniques are often used to massage the books, by inflating profits and pushing out losses. On top of that, net profit may include interest and tax payments, both of which are individual to the company and not necessarily useful for observing what profit a business is actually making.

So instead of using EPS or net profit, a better option is to use EBITDA which stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation. In other words, it is the true earnings before all those components have made their mark. And so, instead of using the trusted P/E, which is market cap divided by EPS you can see it’s better to use a more comprehensive formula such as enterprise value divided by EBITDA.

3. P/E ratios are lagging metrics

Now we’ve looked at the limitations of the formula, you should understand that P/E ratios (like most financial metrics) are inherently misleading because they are lagging metrics. To put it plainly, when you plug in the earnings part of the formula you are typically using past data, typically the trailing 12 month EPS (or EBITDA).

Clearly, the problem with this is that the last 12 months of earnings are not necessarily predictive of the next 12 months. For example, consider a company that has a market cap of $1 billion and in the last twelve months reported net profit of $100 million. That would give it a P/E ratio of 10 which historically would make it cheap and an attractive buy.

But consider that the last 12 months were, in fact, a stand out year for the company based on a series of unusual economic events unlikely to occur again. And in fact, the company usually makes only $20 million a year, not $100 million. With a net profit of only $20 million, the P/E ratio would be 50 which is historically a high and unattractive multiple.

In other words, the stock is priced at 10 times last year’s earnings but 50 times next year’s earnings. The stock either needs to decline in price to bring the P/E back to a more realistic level or it needs to grow its earnings in line with last year’s stand-out numbers.

Either way, you can see that buying the stock based on last year’s earnings is a flawed strategy because it doesn’t consider future earnings or the historical earnings average.

4. P/E cannot be used for unprofitable companies

Divide any number by a negative and you end up with another negative. And so is the problem when using the P/E ratio for any company that reports negative earnings (of which there are many!). Consider, for example, the market cap for Uber which is currently $56 billion. And consider the latest 12-month EBITDA which was -$8.2 billion. 56 divided by -8.2 results in a P/E ratio of -6.8. So if low P/E ratios are good then Uber must be outrageously cheap.

But of course, we know it isn’t because the negative P/E doesn’t tell us anything. All it tells us is this company hasn’t reported any profit in the last 12 months. In other words, the P/E ratio for any unprofitable company is meaningless, except perhaps to say that this is a stock that may not provide any return unless it can soon get itself profitable. In a similar vein, the P/E ratio has limited ability when used to compare across industries.

Low growth industries such as conglomerates or utilities typically command lower P/Es which cannot be compared to other industries such as tech stocks which often have high P/Es or negative P/Es. Essentially, the P/E ratio is limited in its ability whenever the main consideration is growth or profitability.  

5. The Shiller P/E Ratio

The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of a stock market is one of the standard metrics used to evaluate whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly-valued.

This metric was developed by Robert Shiller and popularized during the Dotcom Bubble when he proved (correctly) that equities were highly overvalued. For that reason, it’s also casually referred to as the “Shiller PE”, meaning the Shiller variant of the typical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of stock.

It’s most commonly applied to the S&P 500, but can be and is applied to any stock index. The main benefit is that it is one of several broad valuation metrics that can help you determine how much of your portfolio should reasonably be invested into equities based on the current relationship between the price you pay for them and the value you get in return in the form of earnings.

Robert Shiller demonstrated using 130 years of backtested data that the returns of the S&P 500 over the next 20 years are strongly inversely correlated with the CAPE ratio at any given time.

In other words, whenever the CAPE ratio of the market is high, it means stocks are overvalued, and returns over the next 20 years will likely be poor. In contrast, whenever the ratio is low, it means the stocks are undervalued, and returns over the next 20 years will likely be good.

Are we under, over, of fairly valued in May 2020?

In tomorrows post we will analyze precisely where we are valued as a market and how InterAnalyst can help you maximize your portfolio growth now.

 

6 MUST FILL TRADING GAPS

6 MUST FILL TRADING GAPS

The last time I wrote about 6 Must Fill Trading Gaps was at the end of March, however our members were getting notifications in 2019 and into (01/3102/24, 2/28, and 3/02)  regarding Gaps and the potential consequences of ignoring them.

We all know what happens to the market if we ignore upside gaps…THE GAPS FILL TO THE DOWNSIDE.

The recent crash closed all the gaps dating back through 2018 before we started are ascent again.

I have been listening to the talking heads on Fox Business, CNN, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and many others. The all ask if this rally is just a long journey back up to eventual new highs. Plain and simple, their answers must be scripted. I personally know 2 of them and they are intelligent and practiced and know that 91% of all Gaps fill.

These well trained “guru’s” can easily look to their charts and know whats coming.

If you have downloaded and read our Gaps guide, then you know the 6 Must Fill Trading Gaps are going to eventually close and are already prepared for it.

I was having a nice cold Bud chatting socially with my next door neighbor and he asked me when to expect the Gaps to fill. My answer is always the same so brace for it. “I have no clue.”

What is more important is the recognition that dating all the way back to 2018 all the gains you made were gone in a matter of a few weeks. Now that it has risen 50% from the bottom of the current decline, are you ready to fill those gaps near the bottom?

If you are not ready for a retest, then grab a self paying subscription, or a bottle of Rolaids because it is coming. At a rate higher than 91%, the Green Gaps in the chart above will refill which means the market is coming back down.

History proves it. 

If this is even remotely close to the typical decline dating back to the 1600’s, its best to avoid the declining and simply jump back in close to the bottom.

Another Leg Down?

Another Leg Down?

We have seen a hefty relief rally but does Another Leg Down loom? For those who are Wealth Maximizer Pro members, you have caught the nice profitable rally, contratulations.

I am seeing some “disturbing” signs that the market is very close to re-testing the lows that we previously have made, or, will it form another leg down loom?.

At the very least, it is 98% certain we will come to test the lows around 2250 at any moment in time. It is possible that we have another final leg down, and I believe that we likely will.

It is important for you to remain patient instead of panic buying and falling into bull trap.

During this last leg down, simultaneously, Gold and Silver will likely sell-off for liquidity reasons. People are now and will continue to liquidate their hidden savings.

Here’s why we know that the last leg down is coming:

The VIX remains incredibly elevated (60+) despite big pops in the markets and has not subsided. This tells you another sell-off is looming. Whats more, it’s supported by many other technical and fundamental factors.

For the market to continue up and ignore these factors would be unprecedented.

Prepare for another drop to the eventual bottom.

Crono-Crash & The Slingshot

Crono-Crash & The Slingshot

Livio,

I exited with the Wealth Preserver on the on March 2nd.  The last couple of bullish days brought to mind the Slingshot, are we there and have we missed the first 2 days. In your recent Celente video post you mentioned we’re entering into a global depression which may be even worse than the Great Depression.

Before all that happens is it possible we see DOW tumble another 5K-10K?

There seems to be an incredible amount of liquidating-at-all-costs mentality at the moment. I worked on an equity desk during the 2008 crisis, and currently at a very small non-bank FX dealing desk and have never seen anything like this. Your feedback is always appreciated.

Thanks,
Victor

“Great Question Victor.

The simple answer is NO.

The worst-case scenario appears to be testing the reversal technical line in the 15,000 level and do not see a drop to 5-10K. That is way too far for a slingshot. 

I see the slingshot build and breakout to new highs by 2023.

However, let’s tale a look at history to guide us on recovery times with similar drops to our current CronoCrash. 

Look at the two charts below.

What you see is that it took 65 months from the 2007-2009 Crash to get back to even.

The 1987 Crash appears to be a likely type of pattern from a timing perspective to our current Crono-Crash. That was a 53% decline and took 24 months to break even.

The 2000 -2003 Bear Market was a 3 year 54% decline and took 81 months to break even. 

If we were to fall on par with those declines, we would be looking at a drop to the mid-15000 level.

Because InterAnalyst members s stepped aside (red signals)  for most of the Corona-Crash, they will miss all those months of recovery just to get back to even.

More importantly, while everyone else is back to even, those who stepped aside will be 100% – 400% ahead of those buy and hold investors who did not step aside of the Corona-Crash.

As for the future, when we get back in (green signal) we could reach the test of just below the 40,000 level happening in 2024.

Marxism, Buffett, Dalio, Stalin & The Bottom

Marxism, Buffett, Dalio, Stalin & The Bottom

As always, the Democrats just can’t stand the fact that Trump might take credit for helping people and have blocked and relief package. Democrats claimed in true Marxist fashion in the Senate that the GOP’s push to set aside $425 billion for loans to help select companies and industries, dubbing it a “slush fund” for the Treasury to direct as it sees fit. They said the bill is tilted toward corporations instead of working people. What they fail to even address is that those working people rely upon small businesses the Democrats hate so much which provides 70% of their employment.

Small businesses have been ordered to close down. They cannot pay employees and nobody has suspended their rents. The destruction of small businesses will be devastating to the economy and this is all about playing politics. I am saddened.

The closing for March, if down from last Friday may spark more serious liquidation as Hedge Funds dump everything and some may more to suspend withdrawals as is taking place in European bond funds. The Solus Alternative Asset Management LP, Hedge Fund, known for its investment in retail chain Toys “R” Us, informed its investors that it is shutting its flagship fund and will restrict redemption’s as it works to sell off holdings.

Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may have lost more than $70 billion on its 10 biggest investments. This type of decline shows that the buy-and-hold strategy fails in a serious market correction. Ray Dalio, who will go down in history for his proclamation that “cash is trash” on January 21, 2020, has lost probably more than $4 trillion in Bridgewater.

Where the 2007-2009 Crash took out Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, this time we will see Hedge Funds go down in flames. This undermines liquidity and makes the market vulnerable because market-makers pull back just to survive. 

We are headed into a Global Recession which could become even worse than the Great Depression. Here’s why?

This time we have politicians taking advice from the medical industry. The medical people who do not understand that you cannot shut down the economy on this grand scale because of the devastation is insurmountable to people, their jobs, and wiping out their pensions. This economic shut down on such a massive scale is far worse than if the Corona death toll was even 8%.

Never before has the economy been crashing with such speed for this is orchestrated by people who only look at how diseases spread and not how the economy contracts.

See the source image

Yes, it is true that if we all stayed home we can even beat the common cold. But the post-coronavirus world is going to be far more damaging to the future than any of these people understand.

To have the Democrats playing politics in the middle of the is just insane.

Liquidity is collapsing everywhere. Bank failures rose after the 1929 crash because liquidity failure with a declining velocity = less money with even less money moving around the economy = recession and potential depression.

A monthly closing on Oil below $20.50 will warn of the economic recession ahead as people stay home and this command of quarantine and social distancing may undermine the very cooperation which is the foundation of civilization. 

If people are afraid to interact and suspect everyone, that is precisely the atmosphere created by Stalin during the Communist era.  We are voluntarily limiting and quickly losing all rights including the freedom of assembly. Even Twitter has shut down those who dissent against the coronavirus and this is calling into question our freedom of speech as well.

InterAnalyst will help guide everyone out of this time of insecurity and political misdirection via selfish ignorance.

Look at the chart below:

Finding The Bottom

As the markets find the bottom, it will be laced with volatility and insecurity with the media frightening you to the point of insecurity. this is not done for YOU as an InterAnalyst member. It is done for those Buy and Holders who never exited at the top and now have been scared into submission. 

However, as an InterAnalyst member,  you recognize that it likely will become the best entry point of your life! Yes, insecurity will be there but you know the stock market is going nowhere!

The stock market never lies and it always returns when there is “blood in the street” and the bottom arrives.

Thus, follow the guideline to a risky to safe entry back into the coming slingshot move.

Step One: Wealth Maximizer Pro (Daily Charts)

When the Daily chart delivers a green signal, jump for joy, then choose to enter a position or wait to see if the daily signal is holding for a few days for stability. If we are at or close to a bottom, volatility will be very high so prepare for it if you choose to trade it.

Step Two: Wealth Maximizer (Weekly Charts)

When the Daily is followed by a Weekly green signal you know that the economy is attempting to settle and gain strength.

You should begin to feel a bit more secure. Entering a bullish position here is a bit less risky because the weekly signal has some economic strength attached rather than pure daily volatility. You can even wait another week to see if it develops more strength.

Step Three: The Wealth Preserver (Monthly Charts)

Once the Green signal has elevated from the Daily to the Weekly and the Weekly has moved into a second or third week of a bullish trend, you may select to beat the green monthly Wealth Preserver signal by entering a bullish position before month end.

If you look at The Wealth Preserver chart above, ask yourself whether you remember the days or weeks Just prior to the bottom green signals in 2003 and 2008?  NOPE, right. You don’t remember them, but what you would have remembered is getting in after preserving your money at the prior top, before the full devastating decline those bear markets delivered.

The same is true now. 

So, the bottom is going to come. You must be patient, it will arrive, it always does!

Enter in when you feel most comfortable, but recognize that the Wealth Preserver has proven to be deadly accurate at economic turning points.

The phrase to be true: “Better Safe, than Sorry!” 

Obviously, entry at any point has its risks, but as you look closely at The Wealth Preserver chart above, making a move using the monthly charts is rarely a poor decision…ESPECIALLY OFF THE BOTTOM.

This time it is coming with a slingshot.

Are International Capital Flows Carrying The US Market Higher?

Are International Capital Flows Carrying The US Market Higher?

Capital Flows make the world go around.

Or should it be…

…Capital flows around the world?

Princeton Economics noted that the economy is like a child. It grows, matures and evolves.

Perhaps the greatest problem we face in attempting to reform our political-economy and move forward, has been the assumption that we are in control. We only to see things in our domestic political-economy and make our investments and policy decisions based upon this myopic domestic perspective. We assume governments are in control even though we do not understand what they are doing. They try desperately to influence what we think and do realizing that we actually respond to what we believe will happen in anticipation.

Yet the economy is far more complex and sophisticated. Everything is actually connected precisely as it is in nature for we are part of nature and that same grand design. The global economy is much like a rain forest with billions of lifeforms all depending on another. To analyze and model this kind of complex environmental and societal economic system requires research that views the system both as a whole and its component parts to reveal the interconnected data that lies hidden beneath the surface.  This allows for the combination of small influences to cascade into larger global trends just as removing one specie in a rain forest will set off a chain reaction since it is either a predator or the prey in relation to other species. This is why we need to see the flow of capital between all the players for linking the global data for the analysis reveals the whole complex system, and not just a subset of all the interesting operations and processes of the system.

As illustrated by Highcharts Monthly Capital Flows Chart, the us markets have been held up by international capital flows coming from Europe and China.  This is precisely why the markets have attempted to top and turn recently. But have failed to turn down with any significant momentum.

Bulish momentum remains solid and as long as the inflows continue a downside test will be delayed.

Ripple & ICO’s: The Crypto World Is Finally Maturing

Ripple & ICO’s: The Crypto World Is Finally Maturing

“We are Reshuffling the World Order” Asheesh Birla- VP, Ripple

The influence of regulators is good especially in a sector that is still new and developing. Besides, with regulation, investors’ interests are secured. However, is too much regulation negative? Well, Asheesh of Ripple thinks it is. He even said regulators are unknowingly imposing laws “killing” cryptocurrencies. Anyhow, let’s see what time has now that Ripple and XRP are splitting to please the SEC.

From the News

There is a “necessary’ decoupling going on right now. That of Ripple, the company that was incorporated six years ago and XRP, a product of Ripple Labs and it makes sense for Ripple especially. These two have been synonymous since XRP trading took root a couple of years ago. But as it appears, SEC’s position and selection criteria of what’s qualifies to be a security is driving a wedge between these two. The relation position was even emphasized by The Hatch Company, a PR firm which Ripple hired to drive their point home and complement Brad’s assertion.

Talking of regulators, Asheesh Birla the product VP at Ripple said it’s likely that they will regulate cryptocurrencies to “death”. So, to take measures now that they are a software company offering their client financial solutions, Ripple, the company, is prepping a large regulatory team to take on unfavorable country regulations. This is in line with their vision of on-boarding more than 1,000 new banks/companies to their fold in the next two years. As such, they want to make RXTP integration as smooth as possible and to remove all these bottlenecks that can impede adoption.

Legitimacy Through Global Regulation

Ripple does not want to hear people saying to its coin ‘Ripple,’ and it is working very hard in order to change that in the community. Ripple has been trying to change the notion that is installed in the cryptocurrency market that it is responsible for the XRP currency.

The main intention is to turn its virtual currency into a symbol. And there are some projects and logos around that the community is analyzing as the possible solution for that problem.

The official Github site of the project for the new symbol explains that so as to consider XRP a currency, it will need its own symbol. This is very similar to what other fiat currencies have: $ for dollars, for example. At the moment, the final version of the logo has not been decided, but apparently, it will be different from the current logo of the company and coin.

One of the main reasons for this change is due to the fact that the company wants to ‘desecuritize’ itself. Regulators in the United States may consider some virtual currencies, including Ripple and Ethereum, securities. And the likelihood of XRP being considered one is high.

If this turns out to be in that way (Ripple being considered a security) it would have a strong impact in the price of the virtual currency. With a new logo, it would resemble more as a currency rather than a security – but the effect is not proven yet.

Ripple is one of the most centralized virtual currencies in the market. 81% of the money supply is held by the top 100% accounts, which may be against Ripple’s intention to avoid being deemed as security.

At the same time, the company says and claims that the XRP ledger is an open source and any company would be able to use it for their own purposes. But third-party development in the platform has not been as much as desired and most of the commits made by Ripple have been performed by its staff.

If Ripple wants to solve that problem and disassociate itself from the XRP token, it will have to burn or sell the supply of XRP that the company holds.

Overly, XRP is down 80 percent from their all-time high at the time of this writing. That’s by all accounts a crash and burn and who knows if it will recover or how long it will take.  But Ripple, the company does have a future as a company if they can make the split legal.

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